That’s not true for every riding. Vote strategically using 338canada.com.
Based on current projections there is minimal risk of NDP winning enough seats to seriously hurt Liberals positions over Conservatives.
If your riding is leaning conservative but NDP is a close second, you should vote NDP, not Liberal (if that’s consistent with your values).
A Liberal minority government is the best outcome of this election on my opinion. An unchecked Carney is a risk of over-privatization (though not nearly as dangerous as Conservatives).
Unfortunately, my riding sees conservatives as the likely winner with liberals a close second. I have to vote liberal, but I do agree with strategic voting.
Because this election is seeing so much higher turnout than usual, this is not accurate.
The 338 model ranks polling by how well pollsters predicted the last elections, which had low turnout. Those pollster ranks weigh the current seat projections for this election.
With higher turnout this year that means previously unmotivated voters will be turning out and the current models don’t know how they are represented in polls.
For example we could see suppression of NDP voters and an increase in Gen Z conservatives voting, causing a sharp rightward swing vs forecasts. We also could see traditionally less active voters throw this election further left.
My point is a 338/538 style poll aggregation will be less accurate this year than prior years. DO NOT take 338 as a given.
I expect an outcome more in the tails of the distribution, meaning a swing even more conservative or liberal than even current forecasts.
That’s not true for every riding. Vote strategically using 338canada.com.
Based on current projections there is minimal risk of NDP winning enough seats to seriously hurt Liberals positions over Conservatives.
If your riding is leaning conservative but NDP is a close second, you should vote NDP, not Liberal (if that’s consistent with your values).
A Liberal minority government is the best outcome of this election on my opinion. An unchecked Carney is a risk of over-privatization (though not nearly as dangerous as Conservatives).
That domain does not load for me.
Should be 338canada.com.
Got it.
Unfortunately, my riding sees conservatives as the likely winner with liberals a close second. I have to vote liberal, but I do agree with strategic voting.
Because this election is seeing so much higher turnout than usual, this is not accurate.
The 338 model ranks polling by how well pollsters predicted the last elections, which had low turnout. Those pollster ranks weigh the current seat projections for this election.
With higher turnout this year that means previously unmotivated voters will be turning out and the current models don’t know how they are represented in polls.
For example we could see suppression of NDP voters and an increase in Gen Z conservatives voting, causing a sharp rightward swing vs forecasts. We also could see traditionally less active voters throw this election further left.
My point is a 338/538 style poll aggregation will be less accurate this year than prior years. DO NOT take 338 as a given.
I expect an outcome more in the tails of the distribution, meaning a swing even more conservative or liberal than even current forecasts.