Generously, Trump put him in a bind. On the one hand around a third of his supporters would be down with being the 51st state, or are at least fans of what Trump is doing. If he came out too hard against Trump, he could have bled support to the PPC,

Ironically, electoral reform would save the Conservative Party. It would probably split back into a more PC style centre-right party and a more populist Reform style party. I think an old Joe Clark style PC leader could have done better, but with ⅓ of the modern CPC Qonvoy supporting Trumpians, I don’t know that they could elect one. If they did, it would be Erin O’Toole all over again.

Four journalists had an opportunity to ask a question and follow-up of Carney. Only two were real journalists, and the difference was telling.

• Q1a: Missed original identification and question, but apparently what budget cut will be made to make room for promised investments?
• Q1b: where is the $500 billion coming from.
• Q2a: Juno news: Was Justin Trudeau a good Prime Minister?
• Q2b: How you reconcile (working with former LPC members who were part of Trudeau’s government)? The “odd” question.
• Q3a: Canadian Press: New immigration targets?
• Q3b: Pipelines take years, how does that protect Canadian sovereignty?
• Q4a: True North: “How many genders are there?”
• Q4b: Do biological women have a right to their own spaces?

I am by no means an expert, I just listen to Perun, William Spaniel and Ryan McCabe a lot (and War Fronts et al). Probably the most pressing need for newer more reliable fighters are as interceptors. Russia has historically flown missions to “buzz” the airspace of NATO countries. I think the Baltics are more of a hotspot, and Alaska, but I would assume that Russia will likely do the same to ours more in the future as well. Especially considering we have already banned Russian civilian aircraft from Canadian airspace since 2022.

Second to that would be in support of NATO allies. Canada has routinely used our CF-18’s in support of overseas operations of our allies. I would expect we would like to continue to do so. This is one of those things where if you want allies you probably need to pull your own weight… or surrender something else. I’m certain we could avoid this necessity and just accept increased US concessions. I can’t remember who said it, but I’ve found it useful to consider the US as a “security exporter”. They are getting something in return for their defence spending. Which is also what’s so concerning, the current administration seems completely ignorant of even the cold Realpolitik calculus of US defence spending.

As to the second part, I would expect our NATO allies would appreciate some Canadian F-35s stationed in Poland say.

The third is straight up national defence. Having the equipment means that anyone actually attacking us needs to deal with the equipment. The old adage is that defence capability is built capability. You have the equipment you already have, not the equipment you are buying and will have soon. This 3rd requirement is where F-35 gets really dodgy. We have an ocean and the longest undefended border, what threats do we really face on the home front? Really? Well, even though I think it’s unlikely, it is undeniable that it is vastly less unlikely than it was last year that we could be defending ourselves against US attacks. This could be from US freedom of navigation patrols of the Northwest Passage to an actual land invasion. Don’t forget the best scenario is that nothing happens because it’s not worth it to start anything.

The F-35 is a finicky and high maintenance race horse. It is highly capable but not rugged. That’s fine for the first two requirements, but not great for the 3rd if airbases are targets. This is another reason why Gripen as a stopgap to GCAP seems like a better and better idea. Add in that the US could withhold parts and software updates to further degrade F-35 capability and it becomes less capable in this (currently) unlikely but absolutely devastating scenario.

I’m probably missing a lot, that’s just my impressions as a non-expert. As a non-expert I think we should probably stick with 22 or maybe even 44 F-35s. We can take delivery of them soonest, they are very capable, and they absolutely rock for the first two requirements. The money saved should probably go to Gripen (or Typhoon) since we could order and take delivery in parallel, meaning more fighters faster (see requirement 3). Finally, we should use some of the increase in defence spending to join GCAP. Once our defence aerospace industry is a bit healthier than we can explore further capabilities.

Probably a difference in risk assessment. I’d say I’m 99% certain the US won’t invade Canada in the next 4 years. Granted I was 99.99% certain, so that’s a hundred fold increase in risk.

Also consider the risk of F-35 being sabotaged. It’s not 100%. Lockheed-Martin did not build in a kill switch. The risk is realistically more one of maintenance which does include software. More likely F-35 would be degraded rather than dead on the tarmac. I also discount this risk because in an actual US invasion scenario I don’t think we can buy enough F-35 or Gripen fast enough to make much of a difference and what little defence production we have is close to the border. A US invasion scenario would mostly be an insurgency.

Still F-35 is what everyone is buying for a reason. It’s also what everyone is concerned about for a reason. Like I said, 16 or 22 F-35 should be a no-brainer. They’re already paid for. They are the most capable fighter currently, and they are good for everything we are likely to need them for.

How much more than that makes sense is where I get very uncertain. Arguably the best way to spend more on defence and get nothing in return is analysis paralysis. The other is gold-plating your procurement, and F-35 is already kind of the gold-plated option but it’s also got the best economies of scale so that’s probably not really here nor there.

I think Canada needs to build our armed forces, and we need to be quick and efficient about it. We are already on the waitlist for F-35, and they will support objectives such as supporting allies and arctic patrol. The only thing they aren’t good at is defending against US invasion, but that is mostly because they are maintenance intensive (there is a reason I keep coming back to Gripen).

I also really like the GCAP program. I think it’s a great way to reinvigorate our domestic aerospace industry. Gripen and Typhoon would also help reinvigorate domestic aerospace.

Finally, more money to defence industries in the US just helps the US. Walking away from fighters we’ve already paid for just let’s them keep our money and sell those jets elsewhere. Halving (or one-quartering) our order gets us something that is still very useful, gets us that something about as fast as practical, and also messes with their economies of scale.

Put that all together I’m in the 22-44 F-35 camp, money saved into Gripen, join GCAP. Dual sourced fighters should show dual delivery. Saab is already working on a different Gripen revision replacing the US sourced engine.

You may disagree with my reasoning or conclusions, plus I’m 90% certain I put more thought into the question than 90% of the respondents to the survey. Assuming it was some basic “Should Canada cancel the F-35 contract?” question, how would you answer for me?

Depends on the question. We’ve already paid for 16 of the F-35s, and we’d just be throwing money away if we totally scrapped the program. Plus F-35 is the most advanced of what’s available.

I think we need to de-risk our armed forces, but trying to to keep relying on CF-18s that we know are unreliable vs. F-35 that might be unreliable is pretty clearcut. What I am less unsure of is how many F-35 we should continue with. 16 seems obvious. How many more? What would we get as a substitute? Should we look at GCAP or FCAS instead of or in addition to any of the above questions? Typhoon? Gripen?

So if the question was should we buy any F-35, I would be a yes. Should we buy 88 F-35, I’m a no.

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Pirate Party, V6B 4A2, Grimpen. You’re welcome!

(Vacuum six basements, four attics too. Can’t remember where that was from, but it is permanently in my mind).

• https://smartvoting.ca/
• https://votewell.ca/

My riding has been a three way race between NDP, Green, and CPC, leaving the LPC a distant 4th. Now it looks like a CPC win with a three way race for second: LPC, Green, and NDP.

#My Mastodon Copypasta (formatted for Reddit)

Consider making an account on a Canadian Mastodon instance. Mastodon is a decentralized open-source social media platform similar to X/Twitter. There are many Canadian based general interest “instances” where you can make an account: Mstdn.ca, TheCanadian.Social, CoSocial.ca or any of many others you can find at MastodonServer.ca.

There is no one company fine-tuning an algorithm to entertain you, sell you crypto, and radicalize you, so you’ll need to do some work on setting up your feed. Check out Fedi.Directory, Interesting Accounts to Follow on Mastodon and the Fediverse and Fedi.Tips- An Unofficial Guide to Mastodon and the Fediverse.

For some Canadian themed news sources, I recommend the following Mastodon follows. You can follow pretty much any Mastodon account from any Mastodon instance.

• CBC News
• Global News
• The Tyee
• PressProgress
• Meanwhile In Canada
• Winnipeg Free Press
• The Narwhal
• Cory Doctorow
• Michael Geist
• Senator Paula Simmons
• Canadian History Ehx
• Saskatoon Star Phoenix
• Andrew Kurjata, CBC Journalist

Following #Hashtags is also a good way to stay in the loop on a topic. For now, I’d suggest #Canada , #CdnPoli , #ElbowsUp and #Never51st .

There are also Canadian instances for other Federated services, but Mastodon is probably a good gateway. Even if it isn’t your primary social media, at least you’ll have a backstop of news and a way to connect without the algorithms manipulating what to show you. Hope to see you out there.

There are two things that I find soothing in the recent debacle wrt basic Canadian sovereignty.

First, executive authority resides in the PM, and the PM is selected by and must face question period in the House of Commons. The vaunted US system of checks and balances is useless when the other branches are compromised.

Second, the fundamental problem in the US isn’t structural, it’s that around a third of the electorate is okay with the rank corruption and self-dealing from the top. They cheer on the acts of a Presidential monarch. It doesn’t matter how your democracy is structured, when around a third of your electorate no longer values democratic traditions you are in a dangerous place.

In Canada though, we’ve seen a fairly strong repudiation of Maple MAGA and the Qonvoy movement. It’s a little weird, I’ve seen Qonvoyers missing the point, thinking everyone is on side with them somehow, because Canadian flags? But the ratio of pro-Qonvoy pro-Canada sentiment (where there isn’t an obvious and rampant bot problem) seems to skew pretty far away from the Qonvoyers. I think we face the same dangers the US is facing, but it looks like we have a little more runway.

As to point 2, do not rely on Xitter for your news. It has turned into an algorithmically twisted bot-manipulated hellscape of discord and echo chambers. Speaking to the choir here on Lemmy.ca Canada community, but encourage Canadians to make an account on a Canadian Mastodon or Lemmy instance. I recommend dipping their toe into the Fediverse with Mastodon, and just following some Canadian news sources.

This is one of the reasons I really liked the Saab offer. Supporting a domestic aerospace defence industry is probably a good strategic aim.

GCAP would also offer a chance to foster our domestic aerospace industry.

There are other combinations that achieve much the same though. FCAS (Future Combat Air System) is similar to GCAP, a joint France, Germany and Spain project, but it isn’t scheduled to deliver until 2040.

I am in no position to know what’s “best”, but it’s undeniable that there are some good options. It’s unfortunate though that there will be a cost to pay that we went with F-35 all those years ago. Still don’t have a Canadian F-35 in the air.

Another piece of trivia, that I really don’t know if significant is that Sweden nearly joined GCAP. If we went with Gripen and GCAP, and Sweden rejoined GCAP there might be opportunities for long term partnerships. Then again I think there are similar opportunities with Eurofighter and FCAS.

F-35 is the most advanced aircraft currently available. We’ve also already sunk enough money into the program to pay for the first 16 IIRC. This puts us in an awkward position, considering the possibility of degraded functionality of the F-35 without US assistance¹.

One of the worst ways to balloon military spending without getting anything in return is to keep changing your mind and hanging procurement up in endless indecision. Combined with the money already spent, I think we have to stick with F-35 for at least a bit.

I like the Gripen, and I’d suggest a switching some of our 88 fighters to Gripen’s, but apparently Gripen’s aren’t that much cheaper.

Long term though, I think Canada should get in on GCAP, the Global Combat Air Program. It’s not expected to deliver until 2035 if everything sticks to plan, so we’d still need the F-35 or Gripens I was mentioning in the interim.

¹ My understanding is that the “kill-switch” myth is pretty much that, a myth. There are software systems that depend on the US, apparently ALIS/ODIN, plus the MDF file updates. The possibility of a kill-switch can’t be totally excluded IMO though, there is a lot of software in the F-35, and the US writes and patches it all. Even if there isn’t a kill-switch, the US knows what vulnerabilities they are patching, and if any of them where exploitable, I’d imagine they’d know.

Back in the day, Cott was the #1 pop brand in Canada because they were the private label manufacturer for President’s Choice cola. I remember because they also sold their own branded pop in Fields. Cott’s Beverage got sold off somewhere, and more private label pop bottlers have taken the crown, but there is no reason why some of these pl bottlers couldn’t start a house brand.

We are entering an era when the new Cott’s Cola might outsell Coca Cola because it’s the Canadian alternative.

I think I’d just supporting the inevitable insurgency. Lots of Americans would probably join in as well. I’m sure China and Russia would gladly supply support. Putin’s such a good buddy with Trump, he might even not smile as he funds the absolute destruction of the US for generations at pennies on the dollar.

It’s the stupidest speculative future I can imagine. Who gains in this scenario? Why do something so obviously self destructive? Thing is, who would start a trade war and “joke” about annexation so much? Only someone so ill-informed that they can’t remember how Afghanistan played out (twice) as well as Vietnam, Iraq, etc. Look how much Russia has bled in Ukraine, and to gain so little.

This isn’t Europa Universalis IV. The strength of empires is not built on force of arms. It’s built on the ability to wage war at an industrial scale, to maintain the supply lines and build the tools of destruction. More than that, it the ability to develop the connections to never need to war, and make war too costly.

The steel and aluminum tariffs are a great example of that. Alcan (now Rio-Tinto Alcan), originally Aluminum Company of Canada, is the largest producer of aluminum in the world. It was originally a subsidiary of Alcoa, Aluminum Company of America. It was an example of “friendshoring” or “nearshoring”. Canadian aluminum helped build the Spitfires and Mustangs, the Lancasters and Flying Fortresses of WW2. Similar with steal. Since then, it’s only become more interconnected. The cold war wasn’t won in the fields of Vietnam, but in the studios of Hollywood and the factories of the Free World. Now Trump is throwing that away. For what? That’s the scary thing, I remember learning about Mercantilism in Grade 10. The President of the US is operating at a Grade 10 level of understanding of the fate of nations. He’s just ignorant enough he could do something really stupid.

“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity" —Sun Tzu, probably the one quote Trump ever saw.

“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” ― Sun Tzu, the chapter Trump never got to.

Good ol’ Dougie!

Even if you think he’s a crook, there’s no denying he’s our crook. Unlike the Quisling Danielle Smith.

I buckled and edited to show a screenshot, because apparently that’s more important than the Premier of a Canadian province providing support to MAGAts.

Thanks for recognizing why I linked target than screenshot, even if you are in the minority.

Le sigh. I didn’t realize just viewing the image and just viewing the image was such a challenge.

I specifically wanted to link to the source. I had considered taking a screenshot, in case the page changed, but apparently I overestimated people’s ability to simply view a page without submitting a donation.

Because that’s where the image is with Danielle Smith. I didn’t have any problem not donating.